Where should the demand for houses come from when the population is falling like this?
By wolf richter For wolf street,
The Census Bureau released its vintage 2022 population estimates today. I’m going to focus on California, specifically Southern California and the large population centers of the San Francisco Bay Area. Large coastal countries lost population, some of them very large. Some inland counties increased in population, but not substantially, and the state’s overall population decreased.
I’m going to keep an eye on the housing market because these changes are already having an impact, with the San Francisco Bay Area being one of the worst housing markets in the country with some of the sharpest declines, along with coastal Southern California. House prices are also being affected.
Between April 1, 2020, and July 1, 2022, California’s population declined by 508,900 people to 39.03 million, below the 2016 population. The increase in 2020 was due to adjustments based on the 2020 Census:
Population decrease in California over the past 27 months:
- In 12 months from July 2022: -113,600
- In the 15 months between April 2020 and July 2021: -395,000
Over these 27 months, population change is made up of these factors:
- Natural (births minus deaths): +201,500
- Net international migration (in-migration minus out-migration): +171,200
- Net domestic migration (between other states and California): -871,100
Population decline in the San Francisco Bay Area.
The nine-county San Francisco Bay Area lost 249,400 people in the 27 months between April 1, 2020, and July 1, 2022. Population loss in the 12 months to July 1, 2022 was slower than in the previous period, but continued.
| Bay Area County | pop. Harm | birth minus death | international net migration | domestic net migration |
| san francisco | -65,522 | 2,654 | 7,679 | -70,929 |
| Santa Clara (Silicon Valley) | -65,329 | 17,263 | 25,283 | -105,884 |
| Alameda (East Bay) | -53,334 | 12,682 | 16,030 | -80,712 |
| San Mateo (Silicon Valley) | -35,251 | 5,250 | 6,494 | -46,010 |
| Contra Costa (East Bay) | -8,961 | 5,940 | 6,555 | -22,397 |
| Marin (North Bay) | -6,300 | -36 | 1,299 | -7,594 |
| Sonoma (Wine Country) | -6,225 | -293 | 832 | -6,612 |
| solano | -4,743 | 2,091 | 1,199 | -8,047 |
| Napa (Wine Country) | -3,724 | -290 | 187 | -3,653 |
| Total: | -249,389 | 45,261 | 65,558 | -351,838 |
The population of the nine-county Bay Area overall declined 3.3% from the peak in 2020 to 7.516 million, down from what it was for the first time in 2014. In the chart, the increase in 2020 is due to population adjustments following the 2020 census:
The two largest populations lost in the Bay Area,
San Francisco’s population declined by 8.1% from the peak in 2018 to 808,400 in mid-2022, down from where it was in 2012.
The city has experienced insane boomtown years through 2019, characterized by large price increases, overcrowding, much publicized office shortages and apartment shortages, which later turned into a glut as the boomtown madness faded. But it’s still crowded and expensive, and it can still be hard to get to your favorite restaurants. But house prices are way down, by all means,
Migration slowed in the 12 months from July 1, 2022. but is not yet included in this population snapshot Mass layoffs and hiring freeze in tech and social media have hit the city Since then:
Santa Clara County population declines by 3.2%, from 2020 to 1.871 million in 2022, down from where it was in 2014. The county includes the southern part of Silicon Valley and the city of San Jose. Like San Francisco, this population snapshot does not yet include the effects of tech and social media layoffs through mid-2022:
Population Decline in Coastal Southern California,
The population of Southern California’s Big Four coastal counties decreased from April 2020 to July 1, 2022. Combined, they lost 362,400 lives:
| County | pop. Change | birth minus death | international net migration | domestic net migration |
| los angeles | -292,904 | 30,731 | 46,198 | -363,760 |
| orange | -35,795 | 13,976 | 14,840 | -64,611 |
| San Diego | -22,427 | 25,205 | 11,908 | -58,429 |
| ventura | -11,238 | 3,257 | 1,039 | -15,991 |
| Total: | -362,364 | 73,169 | 73,985 | -502,791 |
But the population of the four counties combined peaked in 2017 and then began to decline, led by Los Angeles County. As of July 2022, the population has decreased by 452,700 or 2.6%:
From their respective peaks:
- Los Angeles: -3.7%
- San Diego: -1.7%
- Ventura: -1.3%
- Orange: -1.1%
Los Angeles County population declines by 3.7%Or 373,800 from the peak in 2016 to 9.72 million, which is down from the lowest level in this data set going back to 2010, but you get the idea:
San Diego County population declines by 1.7%or up to 56,300 from the peak in 2018, including the 1,200 souls the county gained over the 12 months to July 2022, to 3.276 million back from where it was in 2016:
But the inland counties of Riverside and San Bernardino won Population as of mid-2020. Combined, they set a new record of 4.668 million people.
Overall, 19 counties gained population., Some of them are in the Sierra Nevada and foothills, dotted with famous skiing, hiking, and wilderness areas. Two of them extend to Lake Tahoe. When working from home begins in 2020, other counties further north are great places to hang out for a while.
But working from home – amid many layoffs – is now furiously dialing back, and this dialing back is not yet factored into the data, and we’ll have to see if some people are moving back to coastal cities. .
Other counties, such as those in the Central Valley, may have been chosen because they are easier to reach but much cheaper from larger population centers, such as Fresno.
Combined, these 19 counties gained 141,500 people in the period between April 2020 and July 2022, but this was not enough to make up for the population loss in large costlier coastal counties, and overall, California lost 508,900 people. Gave.
| County | pop. Change | birth minus death | international net migration | domestic net migration |
| river bank | 55,725 | 10,444 | 3,064 | 41,512 |
| san joaquin | 14,002 | 5,771 | 2,740 | 5,305 |
| Placer | 13,032 | -356 | 726 | 12,873 |
| san bernardino | 11,994 | 16,121 | 2,797 | -8,401 |
| Merced | 8,812 | 3,338 | 463 | 4,633 |
| cold | 6,864 | 9,376 | 1,293 | -3,539 |
| fresno | 6,540 | 10,694 | 2,197 | -6,981 |
| yolo | 5,710 | 938 | 1,930 | 2,399 |
| tulare | 4,427 | 5,618 | 277 | -1,894 |
| madera | 3,997 | 1,466 | -48 | 2,646 |
| san benito | 3,372 | 719 | -18 | 2,728 |
| yuba | 2,732 | 885 | 92 | 1,752 |
| el dorado | 1,462 | -681 | 266 | 1,956 |
| Calaveras | 1,278 | -486 | 32 | 1,782 |
| amador | 938 | -544 | 28 | 1,492 |
| Kings | 493 | 2,258 | 107 | -1,914 |
| colusa | 77 | 241 | 3 | -184 |
| Nevada | 58 | -874 | 6 | 1,065 |
| Lake | 33 | -520 | 42 | 541 |
| Total | 141,546 | 64,408 | 15,997 | 57,771 |
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