In many markets, prices fell faster than they rose.
By wolf richter for wolf street,
From the peak in May, home prices declined 11.6% in the San Francisco Bay Area, 11.3% in the metros of Seattle, 7.9% in San Diego, 6.0% in Los Angeles, 5.7% in Denver; Prices declined 4.3% from June highs in the Dallas metro S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index For “September,” released today, included the three-month average of closed home sales entered in the public records In July, August and September, those deals that were done sometime between June and August — that’s the time frame we’re looking at here.
This is the second month this fall that the index, which lags behind the reality on the ground by 4-6 months, is showing month-on-month decline in home prices across all 20 metros in the index.
The biggest month-on-month declines were in:
- Seattle: -2.9%
- San Francisco: -2.9%
- Las Vegas: -2.4%
- Phoenix: -2.2%
- Dallas: -2.1%
- San Diego: -2.1
- Denver: -2.0%
Month-to-month declines of 2% or more in the Case-Shiller index (a three-month moving average that smoothes month-to-month volatility) occurred only during the housing bust 1 and the current recession.
Home prices fell 2.9% in the San Francisco Bay Area August to “September” (the three-month moving average of July, August and September) and down 11.6% from the May peak.
Falling faster than spiking: In those four months, the index fell faster (-46 points) than the massive spike (+40 points) in the previous four months.
These four monthly declines reduced year-to-date gains to just 2.3%.
The Case Shiller index for “San Francisco” covers five counties of the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area: San Francisco, part of Silicon Valley, part of the East Bay, and part of the North Bay.
In the Seattle metro, home prices fell 2.9% 11.3% from August in September, and from the peak in May.
In those four months, the index fell almost as fast (-47 points) as it climbed during the previous four-month boom (+49 points).
These four months of declines reduced the year-to-date gain to 6.2%.
In the San Diego metro, home prices fell 2.1% from August in September, and up 7.9% from the peak in May.
Down not as fast as up: -34 points in the four months since the peak, +44 points in the four months past the surprising spike.
These four months of drops reduced year-to-date gains to 9.5%.
Los Angeles Metro:
- Month over month: -1.8%.
- From peak in May: -6.0%.
- Year to date: +8.8%.
- -25 points in the four months compared to +38 points in the four months preceding the peak.
For Los Angeles, the current index value of 398 means that home prices have increased by 298% since January 2000, when the index was set at 100. Based on growth since 2000, Los Angeles and then San Diego used to be #1. America’s Greatest Housing Bubbles. Both have now dropped below Miami (+304%), although prices in Miami have still started to decline.
The Case-Shiller Index uses the “sales pairs” method, comparing sales in the current month to the same home when it previously sold. Price changes within each sale pair are integrated into the index for the metro, weighted based on how long ago the previous sale occurred, and adjustments are made for home improvements and other factors (procedure,
Denver Metro:
- Month over month: -2.0%.
- From peak in May: -5.7%.
- Year over year: +9.3%.
- -19 points in the four months from the peak, +35 points in the four months past the peak.
Phoenix Metro,
- Month over month: -2.2%.
- From peak in June: -4.4%.
- YoY: +12.6%
- +15 points in the three months since the peak, -20 points in the three months past the spike.
Portland Metro:
- Month over month: -1.2%.
- From peak in May: -4.3%.
- Year to date: +6.7%.
- -15 points in the peak four months, +27 points in the last four months of the boom.
Dallas Metro:
- Month over month: -2.1%.
- From peak in June: -4.3%.
- YoY: +16.3%
- -13 points in the three months since the peak, +20 points in the last three months after the spike.
las vegas metro,
- Month over month: -2.4%.
- From peak in July: -3.7%.
- YoY: +12.9%
- Sharp down then up: -11 points in the two months since the peak, +5 points in the last two months of the rally.
Washington DC Metro,
- Month over month: -0.9%.
- From peak in June: -3.1%.
- YoY: +6.5%
- Down faster than up: -10 points in the three months since the peak, +9 points in the last three months of the boom.
Boston Metro,
- Month over month: -1.6%.
- From peak in June: -3.0%.
- YoY: +8.8%
- -10 points in the three months since the peak, +16 points in the three months past the spike.
Tampa Metro:
- Month over month: -0.9%.
- From peak in July: -1.3%
- YoY: +23.8%
- -5 points in the two months since the peak, +10 points in the last two months after the spike.
Miami Metro:
- Month over month: -1.0%.
- From peak in July: -1.2%
- YoY: +24.6%
- -5 points in the two months since the peak, +14 points in the last two months after the spike.
in the New York subway,
- Month over month: -0.7%.
- From peak in July: -1.3%
- YoY: +10.6%
- -3.6 points in the two months since the peak, +3 points in the last two months after the spike.
The New York metro has experienced 173% house price inflation since January 2000, based on a Case-Shiller index value of 273.
The remaining six cities in the 20-city Case-Shiller Index have experienced low housing price inflation and do not qualify for this line-up of the flashiest housing bubbles. But they all posted month-over-month declines in September: Chicago (-0.6%), Charlotte (-1.1%), Minneapolis (-1.0%), Atlanta (-0.8%), Detroit (-1.2%), and Cleveland (-0.7%).
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