It’s the spring sales season, when prices always go up month after month, and went up, but it wasn’t enough.
By wolf richter For wolf street,
It’s still the spring sales season, when sales volume and prices almost always increase on a month-to-month basis, and they did so this spring as well, but not substantially, and compared to a year ago, S& P Corelogic Case in 20 Cities – The Shiller home price index released today fell 1.7%, its biggest year-over-year decline since 2012, following the Fed-money-printer’s huge gains during the pandemic, last There was a 1.1% decline in the month. The 20-city index is now down 3.5% from last June’s peak:
Today’s data for “April” is a three-month moving average of home prices whose sales were recorded in the public records in February, March, and April. This is the season for spring sales, when prices always rise from the previous month, and this happened during the housing bust 1 as well.
On a month-on-month basis, the 20-city index rose 1.7% in March to April, but this was a much smaller increase than in April 2022 (+2.3%) and April 2021 (+2.2%), the same year -Prices fell year-on-year and why:
The list of year-on-year price drops is getting longer. Prices are now down in 10 out of 20 metropolitan areas S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index cover. Here are the metros with year-on-year price decline:
- Seattle: -12.4%
- San Francisco Bay Area: -11.1%
- Las Vegas: -6.6%
- Phoenix: -6.1%
- San Diego: -5.6%
- Portland: -5.2%
- Denver: -4.5%
- Los Angeles: -3.2%
- Dallas: -2.9%
- Washington DC: -0.5%
Prices have fallen from their highs in 19 out of 20 markets (May to July 2022). The exception is the New York City subway, which has surpassed its previous high of July 2022. From their respective peaks, prices have declined the most in these metros:
- Seattle: -12.9%
- San Francisco Bay Area: -12.0%
- Las Vegas: -9.9%
- Phoenix: -9.4%
- Dallas: -8.5%
- San Diego: -6.1%
- Portland: -6.0%
- Denver: -5.6%
- Los Angeles: -4.2%
- Tampa: -3.0%
Seattle Metro,
- Month over month: +2.3%.
- From peak in May: -12.9%.
- YoY: -12.4%.
Seattle’s 12.4% year-over-year decline was the fifth consecutive month of year-over-year declines:
San Francisco Bay Area:
- Month over month: +2.2%.
- From peak in May: -12.0%.
- Year to date: -11.1%.
This was the sixth consecutive month of year-on-year decline:
And this is the state of condos in the San Francisco Bay Area: After a huge run-up, they are now back to where they were when they first arrived in May 2018:
las vegas metro,
- Month over month: +0.7%.
- From peak in July: -9.9%.
- YoY: -6.6%
Phoenix Metro,
- Month over month: +0.7%.
- From peak in June: -9.4%.
- YoY: -6.1%
San Diego Metro:
- Month over month: +2.0%.
- From peak in May: -6.1%.
- Year to date: -5.6%.
Portland Metro:
- Month over month: +1.5%.
- From peak in May: -6.0%.
- Year to date: -5.2%.
Denver Metro:
- Month over month: +1.6%.
- From peak in May: -5.6%.
- YoY: -4.5%.
Los Angeles Metro:
- Month over month: +1.7%.
- From peak in May: -4.2%.
- YoY: -3.2%.
Dallas Metro:
- Month over month: +1.4%.
- From peak in June: -8.5%.
- YoY: -2.9%
Washington DC Metro,
- Month over month: +1.6%.
- From peak in June: -1.6%.
- YoY: -0.5%
Boston Metro,
- Month over month: +2.9%.
- From peak in June: -1.6%.
- Year over year: +0.9%
Tampa Metro:
- Month over month: +0.8%.
- From peak in July: -3.0%
- YoY: +2.4%
Miami Metro:
- Month over month: +0.9%
- From peak in July: -1.3%
- YoY: +5.2%
New York Metro,
- Month to month: 1.5%.
- Surpassed July high: +0.4%
- YTD: +3.0%
modus operandi. The Case-Shiller index uses the “sales pairs” method, which compares sales in the current month to when the same homes sold previously. Value changes are weighted based on how long ago the last sale occurred, and adjustments are made for home improvements and other factors (modus operandi, This “sales pairs” methodology makes the Case-Shiller index a more reliable indicator than average price indices, but it lags months.
The Case-Shiller indices were set to 100 for the year 2000. The Los Angeles Index’s value in April is up 305% since 2000. This makes Los Angeles the #1 priciest housing bubble since 2000 in terms of price growth. Miami and San Diego are only a hair behind, both also seeing increases of over 300%.
The remaining six markets in the Case Shiller Index have experienced very little home price inflation since 2000, and do not qualify for this list of the most spectacular housing bubbles.
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