Coolest housing bubbles in America, March update: Las Vegas, San Francisco, Seattle, Phoenix, Dallas, Denver now having biggest monthly price drops

Double-digit declines from the peak in the San Francisco Bay Area, Seattle, San Diego, Phoenix, Las Vegas.

View of Housing Bubble 2 in the San Francisco Bay Area:

This time, it’s not the unemployment crisis that’s driving the housing market down. Labor market still tight with big wage hikes Although the tech and social media segments are beginning to waver, But it is mortgage rates that have returned to pre-QE normal levels of 6% to 7% in the same range as CPI inflation. And they’re struggling with home prices that went crazy under the Fed’s QE and interest rate suppression.

And so house prices fell further S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index For “January” – a three-month moving average of home sales entered in the public records In November, December and January, largely reflect the deals done from October to December.

on a month-to-month basisToday’s Case-Shiller index for single-family home prices fell in 19 out of 20 metros. The only exception was Miami, where the index remained essentially flat. The 10 biggest month-on-month declines were in:

Las Vegas: -1.4%
San Francisco Bay Area: -1.3%
Seattle: -1.4%
Phoenix: -1.2%
Dallas: -0.9%
Denver: -0.9%
Chicago: -0.5%
Portland: -0.7%
Tampa: -0.7%
Washington DC: -0.7%

Prices are below their respective peaks (May to July 2022) in these metros:

San Francisco Bay Area: -17.1%
Seattle: -16.3%
San Diego: -11.5%
Phoenix: -10.5%
Las Vegas: -10.1%
Denver: -9.5%
Portland: -8.6%
Dallas: -8.5%
Los Angeles: -8.3%
Boston: -5.7%

year-on-year low prices Now in four metros out of 20:

San Francisco Bay Area: -7.6%
Seattle: -5.1%
San Diego: -1.4%
Portland: -0.5%

fast up and down This is a rare occurrence in housing markets, but it is happening in the San Francisco Bay Area, where prices have declined faster in the eight months since the peak than in the eight months leading up to the peak. The metropolitan areas of Seattle and Las Vegas came close (from percent to peak):

San Francisco Bay Area, peak in May: -17.1%; +15.7%.
Peak in Seattle, May: -16.3%; +19.7%.
Las Vegas, peak in July: -10.2%; +11.6%.

modus operandi. The Case-Shiller Index uses the “sales pairs” method, comparing sales in the current month to the same home when it previously sold. Price changes are weighted based on how long ago the last sale occurred, and adjustments are made for home improvements and other factors (modus operandi, This “sales pairs” method makes the Case-Shiller index a more reliable indicator than average price indices, but it lags months.

san francisco bay area The housing market is affected not only by mortgage rates, but also by the stock market – especially by IPOs and SPACs, which have mostly collapsed, and by tech and social media giants who are now laying off highly paid workers. are doing. But these home prices released today are based on sales that closed in January and before, so the recent fireworks haven’t been reflected yet. That is yet to come.

The Case–Shiller index for “San Francisco” covers five counties of the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area: San Francisco, part of Silicon Valley, part of the East Bay, and part of the North Bay.

Month over month: -1.3%.
From peak in May: -17.1%.
Year to date: -7.6%.
Lowest since May 2021.

Seattle Metro,

Month over month: -1.4%.
From peak in May: -16.3%.
Year to date: -5.1%.
Lowest since September 2021.

San Diego Metro:

Month to month: -0.4%.
From peak in May: -11.5%.
Year to date: -1.4%.
Lowest since January 2022.

Phoenix Metro,

Month over month: -1.2%.
From peak in June: -10.5%.
YoY: Flat
Lowest since January 2022.

las vegas metro,

Month over month: -1.4%.
From peak in July: -10.1%.
YoY: +0.4%
lowest since January 2022

Denver Metro:

Month to month: -0.9%.
From peak in May: -9.5%.
Year to date: +1.0%.
Lowest since January 2022.

Portland Metro:

Month to month: -0.7%.
From peak in May: -8.6%.
Year to date: -0.5%.
Lowest since December 2021.

Dallas Metro:

Month to month: -0.9%.
From peak in June: -8.5%.
YTD: +5.0%

Los Angeles Metro:

Month to month: -0.2%.
From peak in May: -8.3%.
Year to date: +0.9%.
Lowest since January 2022.

Boston Metro,

Month over month: -0.3%.
From peak in June: -5.7%.
YoY: +4.2%

Washington DC Metro,

Month to month: -0.7%.
From peak in June: -5.0%.
YoY: +2.4%

Tampa Metro:

Month to month: -0.7%.
From peak in July: -4.7%
YoY: +10.5%

Miami Metro:

Month over month: Essentially flat (+0.1%).
From peak in July: -2.6%
YoY: +13.8%

New York Metro,

Month to month: -0.4%.
From peak in July: -2.3%
YoY: +5.2%

Also in January and December for Miami Metro, the Case-Shiller Index value was 399. Case-Shiller indices were set to 100 for the year 2000. Despite the recent decline, Miami house prices are still up 299% since 2000. This makes Miami the #1 hottest housing bubble in terms of price growth since 2000. Miami has moved into the #1 slot because its prices have dropped less than prices in Los Angeles and San Diego, previously #1s at different times.

A New York Metro Index value of 270 indicates that home price inflation was 172% since 2000, and that’s just as insane, making it the tail end of this list of the most spectacular housing bubbles.

In the remaining six markets of the Case Shiller Index, home prices have increased very little since 2000, and therefore do not qualify for this list. But the prices in all of them have come down over the months. Today’s Case-Shiller index declines: Chicago (-0.5%), Charlotte (-0.3%), Minneapolis (-0.9%), Atlanta (-0.3%), Detroit (-0.6%), and Cleveland (-0.6%) ) ).

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