Even in Miami and Tampa, prices have declined for the 5th month in a row.
By wolf richter For wolf street,
Just for a preview, Housing Bubble 2 in Seattle:
Not under pressure from the unemployment crisis, housing bubble 2 continues to deflate Far from it: Labor market still historically tight with highest wage growth in four decadesAnd a rise in unemployment will be the next reason for the housing market to decline — but because mortgage rates have returned to the normal levels of 6% to 7% that existed before the money-printing era began in 2008. And home prices that exploded over the past few years, driven by mortgage rates of 3% and less, don’t make sense now — and never made sense to begin with.
today we got S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index For “December”. Time Period Here: Three Month Moving Average of Home Sales entered in the public records In October, November and December, largely refers to deals done in September through November.
on a month-to-month basisToday’s Case-Shiller index for single-family home prices fell in all 20 metros. The largest month-on-month declines, falling at least 1.0%, occurred in:
- Phoenix: -1.9% (2nd month in a row! Baby’s moving fast)
- Portland: -1.9%
- Las Vegas: -1.8%
- San Francisco Bay Area: -1.8%
- Seattle: -1.8%
- Denver: -1.3%
- San Diego: -1.3%
- Chicago: -1.2%
- Minneapolis: -1.2%
- Dallas: -1.1%
- Detroit: -1.1%
- Charlotte: -1.0%
from their respective peaksHome prices declined the most in these metros between May and July 2022:
- San Francisco Bay Area: -16.0%
- Seattle: -15.1%
- San Diego: -11.1%
- Phoenix: -9.4%
- Denver: -7.5%
- Las Vegas: -8.8%
- Los Angeles: -8.1%
- Portland: -7.9%
- Dallas: -7.6%
The Case-Shiller Index uses the “sales pairs” method, comparing sales in the current month to the same home when it previously sold. Price changes are weighted based on how long ago the last sale occurred, and adjustments are made for home improvements and other factors (modus operandi, This “sales pairs” method makes the Case-Shiller index a more reliable indicator than average price indices, but it lags months.
The median-price index reflects the median price of all homes sold that month, and therefore can be skewed by changes in the mix of homes sold, which can be an issue when the market undergoes sudden and dramatic changes. Like in 2022. But the average price index is very high.
san francisco bay area There are leaders here. The Case-Shiller index for single-family homes has now fallen 16.0% from its May peak. The index is down 4.2% on a year-to-date basis.
By comparison, the Median Price Index for the San Francisco Bay Area by the California Association of Realtors – median prices are much more current but less reliable – fell 35% in January from the peak in April,
The Case-Shiller index for the San Francisco Bay Area declined sharply in the seven months since the May peak (-63 points), while it increased in the seven months since May (+53 points).
The index for “San Francisco” covers five counties of the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area: San Francisco, part of Silicon Valley, part of the East Bay, and part of the North Bay.
- Month over month: -1.8%.
- From peak in May: -16.0%.
- Year to date: -4.2%.
- Lowest since May 2021.
in the Seattle Metro, The chart shown in the introduction as a preview:
- Month over month: -1.8%.
- From peak in May: -15.1%.
- Year to date: -1.8%.
- Lowest since October 2021.
San Diego Metro:
- Month over month: -1.3%.
- From peak in May: -11.1%.
- Year over year: +1.6%.
- Lowest since December 2021.
Phoenix Metro,
- Month over month: -1.9%.
- From peak in June: -9.4%.
- YoY: +2.9%
- Lowest since January 2022.
las vegas metro,
- Month over month: -1.8%.
- From peak in July: -8.8%.
- YoY: +3.6%
Denver Metro:
- Month over month: -1.3%.
- From peak in May: -8.7%.
- Year to date: +3.5%.
- Lowest since January 2022.
Los Angeles Metro:
- Month over month: -0.8%.
- From peak in May: -8.1%.
- Year to date: +2.7%.
- Lowest since January 2022.
Portland Metro:
- Month over month: -1.9%.
- From peak in May: -7.9%.
- Year over year: +1.1%.
Dallas Metro:
- Month over month: -1.1%.
- From peak in June: -7.6%.
- YoY: +7.9%
Boston Metro,
- Month over month: -0.9%.
- From peak in June: -5.5%.
- YoY: +5.2%
Washington DC Metro,
- Month over month: -0.4%.
- From peak in June: -4.3%.
- YoY: +4.3%
Tampa Metro:
- Month over month: -0.9%.
- From peak in July: -4.0%
- YoY: +13.9%
Miami Metro:
- Month over month: -0.3%.
- From peak in July: -2.6%
- YoY: +15.9%
in the New York subway,
- Month over month: -0.2%.
- From peak in July: -1.8%
- YoY: +6.6%
The Case-Shiller Index value for Miami Metro in December was 399. All Case-Shiller indices for the year 2000 were set at 100. This means that Miami house prices are up 299% since 2000, despite a recent decline. This makes Miami the #1 hottest housing bubble in terms of price growth since 2000 in the Case-Shiller Index, at different times in 2022, surpassing previous #1s in Los Angeles and San Diego as their prices fell faster than prices. in miami.
The New York metro, with an index value of 271 – home price inflation since 2000 of 172% – makes up the taillight of this list of the coolest housing bubbles.
The remaining six housing markets in the Case Shiller Index have not grown nearly as much and do not qualify for this list. All of these have been witnessing a drop in prices in the last few months. “December” month-over-month: Chicago (-1.2%), Charlotte (-1.0%), Minneapolis (-1.2%), Atlanta (-0.7%), Detroit (-1.1%), and Cleveland (-0.8%) ).
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