No dear, it is not seasonal.
By wolf richter for wolf street,
Falling home prices have turned into a relentless addiction. Today’s S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index was issued for “October”. Time Frame: Three Month Moving Average of Closed Home Sales entered in the public records in August, September and October; These are deals that were largely done during July to September.
Since then, house prices As we know from various mean-price indices, across the country have fallen further, For example, in the city of San Francisco, median home price now down 27% from peak in April,
The Case-Shiller index here — it covers 20 metropolitan areas — is a more reliable indicator than the sometimes crazy median-price indices that can be heavily skewed by changes in the mix of homes sold. But the Case-Shiller index is months behind.
Home prices declined again on a month-on-month basis in all 20 metros included in the Case-Shiller index. On a year-over-year basis, price gains declined further, with the condo index for San Francisco now negative; and the housing price index nearly flat.
Biggest month-on-month decline What happened in today’s “October” index:
- Dallas: -2.1%
- Las Vegas: -1.8%
- San Francisco: -1.7%
- Phoenix: -1.6%
- Denver: -1.1%
- Seattle: -1.0%
- Boston: -1.0%
- Miami: -1.0%
from their various peaksWhich is from May to July, home prices fell the most:
- San Francisco Bay Area: -13.0%
- Seattle Metro: -12.2%
- San Diego Metro: -8.5%
- Denver Metro: -6.7%
- Los Angeles Metro: -6.6%
- Phoenix Metro: -5.9%
- Dallas Metro: -5.6%
- Las Vegas Metro: -5.2%.
Home prices declined 1.7% in the San Francisco Bay Area. in “October” (a three-month moving average of sales recorded in the public records for August, September, and October), and is now down 13.0% from the peak in May.
Falling faster than the peak: In those five months since the peak, the index fell 51.4 points. In the five months to the peak, it had increased by 48.6 points.
The five-month decline from the peak has almost wiped out the year-to-date gains (+0.6%). The Case-Shiller index for San Francisco Bay Area condos is already down 1.3% year-to-date.
The index for “San Francisco” covers five counties of the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area: San Francisco, part of Silicon Valley, part of the East Bay, and part of the North Bay.
In the Seattle metro, home prices fell 1.0% September to October, and are now down 12.2% from the peak in May.
In those five months after the peak, the index fell 50.4 points. In the five months to the peak, it had increased by 55.9 points.
These five months of price declines reduced the year-to-date gain to 4.5%.
San Diego Metro:
- Month over month: -0.7%.
- From peak in May: -8.5%.
- YoY: +7.5%.
- Down five months from peak in May: -36.5 points
- Up in five months, peaked in May: 53.4 points.
- Month over month: -1.1%.
- From peak in May: -6.7%.
- Year to date: +7.9%.
- Down five months from peak in May: -22.2 points
- Peaked in May over five months: +39.3 points.
Los Angeles Metro:
- Month over month: -0.6%.
- From peak in May: -6.6%.
- Year to date: +6.6%.
- Down five months from peak in May: -27.8 points
- Up in five months, peaked in May: 44.3 points.
Changing leadership amid the grandest of housing bubbles, For Los Angeles, the current index value of 395 means that home prices have increased by 295% since January 2000, when the index was set at 100. Based on growth from 2000, Los Angeles was the #1 largest housing bubble in the US until February 2022, when it was surpassed by San Diego.
But both were sidelined by Miami in August 2022, as prices were falling in Los Angeles and San Diego, while prices in Miami were just beginning to drop. So while Miami has become the #1 hottest housing bubble in the US, prices are still up 301% since January 2000. Now they are all chasing each other.
Working of Case-Shiller Index: The index uses a “sales pairs” method, comparing sales in the current month to the same home that previously sold. Price changes within each sale pair are integrated into the index for the metro, weighted based on how long ago the previous sale occurred, and adjustments are made for home improvements and other factors (procedure,
- Month over month: -1.6%.
- From peak in June: -5.9%.
- YoY: +9.6%
- Down in four months from peak in June: -20.4 points
- Peaked in June over four months: +29.2 points.
- Month over month: -2.1%.
- From peak in June: -5.6%.
- YoY: +13.5%
- Down in four months from peak in June: -10.3 points
- Up in four months to peak in June: +36.3 points.
las vegas metro,
- Month over month: -1.8%.
- From peak in July: -5.4%.
- YoY: +9.4%
- Down in three months from peak in July: -16.3 points
- Up in three months at the top in July: +17.0 points.
- Month over month: -0.9%.
- From peak in May: -5.2%.
- Year to date: +5.4%.
- Down five months from peak in May: -17.7 points
- Peaked in May over five months: +30.4 points.
- Month over month: -1.0%.
- From peak in June: -4.0%.
- YoY: +7.6%
- Down in four months from peak in June: -12.5 points
- Peaked in June over four months: +24.2 points.
Washington DC Metro,
- Month to month: -0.5%.
- From peak in June: -3.6%.
- YTD: +6.0%
- Down in four months from peak in June: -11.3 points
- Peaked in June over four months: +17.5 points.
- Month over month: -0.8%.
- From peak in July: -2.1%
- YoY: +20.5%
- Down in three months from peak in July: -8.0 points
- Up in three months at the top in July: +29.3 points.
- Month over month: -1.0%.
- From peak in July: -2.1%
- YoY: +21.0%
- Down three months from peak in July: -8.6 points
- Up in three months at the top in July: +32.7 points.
in the New York subway,
- Month over month: -0.2%.
- From peak in July: -1.5%
- YoY: +9.3%
- Down three months from peak in July: -4.1 points
- Up in three months to top in July: +12.0 points.
In the New York metro, housing price inflation since 2000 was 172%, based on a Case-Shiller Index value of 273 today. This makes it the taillight of the most splendid housing bubbles.
In the remaining six cities in the 20-city Case-Shiller Index, housing price inflation has been low, and they do not qualify for this roster. But they also experienced month-over-month declines in the “October” index following a September decline: Chicago (-0.5%), Charlotte (-0.9%), Minneapolis (-0.7%), Atlanta (-0.8), Detroit (-0.9%), and Cleveland (-1.0%).
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