Even Miami lost ground. The spring sales season has been futile so far. And the banking crisis hasn’t even gotten into the numbers yet. That is yet to come.
By wolf richter For wolf street,
The spring sales season is here, but so far it sucks. In some markets, home prices fell from the previous month despite the spring selling season: Miami, Seattle, Las Vegas, Portland, New York City, Dallas, for example.
In other markets, prices rose from last month, but by much less than a year ago, and so year-over-year, even in those markets, home prices either fell further, or year-over-year gains further was reduced This is based on today’s release of the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index.
For example, in the San Diego metro, home prices increased 1.5% from last month, but because the increase was much smaller than the same month last year, the year-over-year decline worsened to -4.1%. From -1.3% last month. San Diego’s year-over-year percentage change reflects the theory of how the housing market is still deteriorating even with seasonal growth as the growth was lower than the same period a year ago:
The effects of the banking crisis have not yet been reflected in housing market data. These home prices today are based on sales that closed in February and the months before, so on the March fireworks Silicon Valley Bank and at first republic Will incorporate this into the housing data in future months.
Today’s S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index The three-month moving average of home sales for “February” is entered in the public records in December, January and February.
The list of year-on-year price drops is getting longer. Prices are now down in 8 of the 20 metros covered by the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, double what they were in 4 metros a month ago (percentages in parentheses indicate year-over-year change in the previous month):
- San Francisco Bay Area :-10.0% (from -7.7%)
- Seattle Metro: -9.3% (from -5.1%)
- San Diego Metro: -4.1% (from -1.3%)
- Portland Metro: -3.2% (from -0.5%)
- Las Vegas: -2.6% (+0.4%)
- Phoenix: -2.1% (from -0.01%)
- Los Angeles: -1.3% (+1.0%)
- Denver Metro: -1.2% (from 0.0%)
Prices are below their respective peaks (May to July 2022) in these metros:
- Seattle: -16.5%
- San Francisco Bay Area: -16.3%
- Las Vegas: -10.9%
- Phoenix: -10.4%
- San Diego: -10.1%
- Denver: -8.8%
- Portland: -8.7%
- Dallas: -8.5%
- Los Angeles: -7.3%
- Boston: -5.6%
modus operandi. The Case-Shiller Index uses the “sales pairs” method, comparing sales in the current month to the same home when it previously sold. Price changes are weighted based on how long ago the last sale occurred, and adjustments are made for home improvements and other factors (modus operandi, This “sales pairs” method makes the Case-Shiller index a more reliable indicator than average price indices, but it lags months.
Seattle Metro,
- Month over month: -0.3%.
- From peak in May: -16.5%.
- Year to date: -9.3%.
And here are the year-over-year percentage changes in the Seattle Index. The current year-to-date decline of 9.3% comes after declines of 5.1% and 1.8% in the previous two months:
San Francisco Bay Area:
- Month over month: +1.0%.
- From peak in May: -16.3%.
- Year to date: -10.0%.
And here are the year-over-year percentage changes in the index for the San Francisco Bay Area. This was the fourth consecutive month of year-on-year decline.
San Diego Metro:
- Month over month: +1.5%.
- From peak in May: -10.1%.
- Year to date: -4.1%.
Phoenix Metro,
- Month over month: +0.1%.
- From peak in June: -10.4%.
- YoY: -2.1%
las vegas metro,
- Month to month: -0.9%.
- From peak in July: -10.9%.
- YoY: -2.6%
And here are the year-over-year percentage changes in the index for Las Vegas. This was the month when the index turned to a year-on-year decline.
Denver Metro:
- Month over month: +0.8%.
- From peak in May: -8.8%.
- Year to date: -1.2%.
Portland Metro:
- Month over month: -0.1%.
- From peak in May: -8.7%.
- Year to date: -3.2%.
Dallas Metro:
- Month to month: -0.02%.
- From peak in June: -8.5%.
- YTD: +2.0%
Los Angeles Metro:
- Month over month: +1.0%.
- From peak in May: -7.3%.
- Year to date: -1.3%.
Boston Metro,
- Month over month: +0.1%.
- From peak in June: -5.6%.
- YoY: +2.2%
Washington DC Metro,
- Month over month: +0.4%.
- From peak in June: -4.6%.
- YoY: +1.1%
Tampa Metro:
- Month over month: +0.1%.
- From peak in July: -4.7%
- YoY: +7.7%
Miami Metro:
- Month over month: -0.4%
- From peak in July: -2.9%
- YoY: +10.8%
And here are the year-over-year percentage changes in the index for Miami. You can see that the market lags behind Seattle by six to eight months:
New York Metro,
- Month over month: -0.3%.
- From peak in July: -2.6%
- YoY: +3.6%
The Case–Shiller index was set at 100 for the year 2000. So that the Miami index at 397 points in February is up 297% since 2000. This makes Miami the #1 hottest housing bubble since 2000 in terms of price growth. Miami has moved into the #1 slot because its prices started falling later than #1, Los Angeles and then San Diego.
A New York Metro Index value of 269 indicates that home price inflation was 169% since 2000, and although this is still a significant amount of home price inflation in 22 years, the metro is in one of the most spectacular housing bubbles. forms the end of the list. , The remaining six markets in the Case Shiller Index have experienced very little home price inflation since 2000, and do not qualify for this list.
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